Fewer than half of the vaccinated Americans eligible for a first booster have opted for one an even paltrier fraction of those who could get second and third boosters are currently up to date on their shots. Here in the U.S., vaccine enthusiasm has a pretty dire prognosis. The protective power of COVID shots will depend heavily on their reach: The more people who get them as recommended, the better they’ll work. “A vaccine without vaccination is an exercise in futility,” says Stephen Thomas, the director of the University of Maryland’s Center for Health Equity. But for it to work at all, people have to actually get the shots. The virus’s own mutational hijinks will determine, in part, how well that wager pays off. is about to make a big gamble on our next COVID winter

Regardless, a new formulation with any bit of Omicron will constitute a bet that these ingredients will better protect people than another dose of the original vaccine recipe, whose protective powers have been fading for many months.

Neither the agency nor its outside expert panel has yet reached consensus on which version of Omicron will be the best choice, and whether the next round of shots will still contain the original version of the virus as well. Today, an advisory committee to the FDA recommended that our current slate of shots be updated to include a piece of an Omicron subvariant, with the aim of better tailoring the vaccine to the coronavirus variants that could trouble us this fall. But the virus they fight has changed quite radically, and this fall, the vaccines will finally, finally follow suit. has used to inoculate hundreds of millions of people are simply so new that they’ve never had to undergo a metamorphosis up until now, their original-recipe ingredients have stood up to SARS-CoV-2 well enough.

In one sense, this is how it was always supposed to go: When viruses evolve, vaccines should follow, and sometimes try to leap ahead.

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